JOCO House Updates
In the weeks since the 2008 Session adjourned, the House and Senate rosters have undergone a tremendous amount of turmoil, specifically in the Johnson County delegation. Several incumbent representatives have unexpectedly resigned while others have shifted around to jockey for their places. We'll give you a long-overdue update complete with our projections.
49th House District
This was the move that started the whole firestorm. Representative Ben Hodge, an Olathe Freshman, resigned his seat effective at the conclusion of Session. This move was expected by some who speculated that Hodge's out-of-district franked mail may point to a run for higher office. After waiting in limbo for several weeks, Hodge announced his candidacy for the Senate seat vacated by Barbara Allen (we'll get to that later).
Outlook:
- After Hodge's resignation, Johnson County Party Chair and former State Rep. Scott Schwab was nominated and selected as his replacement. Schwab ran unopposed in the nomination convention and likely will remain so during the November elections, at least with a serious opponent.
22nd House District
This seat, long held by Democrat representative Sue Storm, came into play after Storm's sudden resignation. Almost immediately after, former Republican turned-opportunist, Lisa Benlon, decided to throw her name into the ring. Once again, this move continues a trend for Kansas Democrats - being forced to turn to washed-up, defeated Republicans after showing an utter incapacity to recruit solid candidates.
Outlook:
- Benlon should attract a Republican challenge - we're working on who that may be.
48th House District
With Dennis Wilson bowing out from the Senate, Representative Jeff Colyer snapped at the opportunity to take his place. Colyer put his name on the ballot for Wilson's seat, leaving the spot open for a Republican replacement.
Outlook:
- We've discovered the name of the likely candidate, though we're not going to release it at this point. Our reports indicate that the conservative faction of the Party will not be fielding a contender - meaning that the next representative from the 48th will, in all likelihood, be a moderate.
37th Senate District -
Dennis Wilson left the seat, opening it up for Republican replacement. As previously mentioned, Colyer quickly threw his hat in the ring. Also on the ballot is Rob Hodgkinson, a perennial Libertarian Party candidate. At this point, no Democrat has filed.
Outlook:
- According to our reports, Colyer will draw no Primary challenge. He's acceptable to both sides of the Party and simply has too much money to be beaten. If he draws any opposition from the Left, it will be token. Look for Colyer to walk to this one with a larger margin than most any other Senate candidate.
8th Senate District -
Unlike the resignation of Dennis Wilson, Barbara Allen's retirement came as a complete shock to most. Our sources tell us that even her closest advisers had no idea that she was departing the Senate until the day of her resignation. Almost immediately, speculation began as to who would jump in the race. Ben Hodge immediately filed. Tim Owens filed shortly after. Others also speculated to be interested include Kevin Yoder and Jim Yonally.
Outlook:
- At this point, Ben Hodge and Tim Owens are the only candidates for the seat. As we mentioned, several others are considering an entrance. Our guess - this is what the field remains, at least in terms of big names. It makes sense for Kevin Yoder to run (though he'd have to move into the District to do so). If Owens hadn't already jumped in, we'd be shocked if Yoder stayed in the House. He seems too politically astute, however, to enter a Primary in which he may not be the front-runner. Hodge will probably work hard, but unless he raises significantly more money than he did during his previous House-candidacy, Owens will be tough to beat.
In the next few weeks, we'll keep you up to date on all the jostling that may occur among the JOCO Delegation. Look for a few more names to pop up, and when they do, we'll let you know.
49th House District
This was the move that started the whole firestorm. Representative Ben Hodge, an Olathe Freshman, resigned his seat effective at the conclusion of Session. This move was expected by some who speculated that Hodge's out-of-district franked mail may point to a run for higher office. After waiting in limbo for several weeks, Hodge announced his candidacy for the Senate seat vacated by Barbara Allen (we'll get to that later).
Outlook:
- After Hodge's resignation, Johnson County Party Chair and former State Rep. Scott Schwab was nominated and selected as his replacement. Schwab ran unopposed in the nomination convention and likely will remain so during the November elections, at least with a serious opponent.
22nd House District
This seat, long held by Democrat representative Sue Storm, came into play after Storm's sudden resignation. Almost immediately after, former Republican turned-opportunist, Lisa Benlon, decided to throw her name into the ring. Once again, this move continues a trend for Kansas Democrats - being forced to turn to washed-up, defeated Republicans after showing an utter incapacity to recruit solid candidates.
Outlook:
- Benlon should attract a Republican challenge - we're working on who that may be.
48th House District
With Dennis Wilson bowing out from the Senate, Representative Jeff Colyer snapped at the opportunity to take his place. Colyer put his name on the ballot for Wilson's seat, leaving the spot open for a Republican replacement.
Outlook:
- We've discovered the name of the likely candidate, though we're not going to release it at this point. Our reports indicate that the conservative faction of the Party will not be fielding a contender - meaning that the next representative from the 48th will, in all likelihood, be a moderate.
37th Senate District -
Dennis Wilson left the seat, opening it up for Republican replacement. As previously mentioned, Colyer quickly threw his hat in the ring. Also on the ballot is Rob Hodgkinson, a perennial Libertarian Party candidate. At this point, no Democrat has filed.
Outlook:
- According to our reports, Colyer will draw no Primary challenge. He's acceptable to both sides of the Party and simply has too much money to be beaten. If he draws any opposition from the Left, it will be token. Look for Colyer to walk to this one with a larger margin than most any other Senate candidate.
8th Senate District -
Unlike the resignation of Dennis Wilson, Barbara Allen's retirement came as a complete shock to most. Our sources tell us that even her closest advisers had no idea that she was departing the Senate until the day of her resignation. Almost immediately, speculation began as to who would jump in the race. Ben Hodge immediately filed. Tim Owens filed shortly after. Others also speculated to be interested include Kevin Yoder and Jim Yonally.
Outlook:
- At this point, Ben Hodge and Tim Owens are the only candidates for the seat. As we mentioned, several others are considering an entrance. Our guess - this is what the field remains, at least in terms of big names. It makes sense for Kevin Yoder to run (though he'd have to move into the District to do so). If Owens hadn't already jumped in, we'd be shocked if Yoder stayed in the House. He seems too politically astute, however, to enter a Primary in which he may not be the front-runner. Hodge will probably work hard, but unless he raises significantly more money than he did during his previous House-candidacy, Owens will be tough to beat.
In the next few weeks, we'll keep you up to date on all the jostling that may occur among the JOCO Delegation. Look for a few more names to pop up, and when they do, we'll let you know.
Thank you, SRK, finally a good post on Republican politics. Pretty right on also. In the 49th, Schwab is still conservative but has made peace with mods so no primary challenge. Dems may take a shot here. Benlon will be tough in the 22nd - good name recognition and party switching is a bigger deal to insiders than to most voters who don't know who's who anyway. A Dem and former Rep has now filed for Allen's seat. Hodge has too much baggage and not enough money. Owens should win the primary but Hawver has noted that this district has been trending Dem so they will see this as an unexpected opportunity and will go for it. Yoder won't run; he can't afford a loss at this stage of his career so will wait for a near sure thing. He can move based on a target of opportunity. Also, don't forget Judy Morrison's retirement; another Republican has filed there. Finally, moderates are lining up a candidate for Owen's old house seat; it is a mod district.
There seems to be an interesting subplot this year; almost an unwritten agreement that mods and conservatives are not challenging each other's incumbants so far. Would be a smart move in that Dems seem poised to file and campaign hard; not a good year for ruinous and financially draining primaries.
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Hey idiots, get your facts straight. Not only is there a dem who has filed in SD8, Hodge hasn't actually filed. So not only did he not file "almost immediately," but he hasn't done it at all.
Come on, it's not hard to look at the secretary of state's candidate list, it took me two minutes on a slow connection.
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It'd be great if your brain wasn't as slow as your connection - the S.O.S. website isn't the official listing - it's the KS Governmental Ethics Commission website. Why don't ya pull that one up and tell me what it says?....idiot...
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The SOS website lists formal candidate declarations, and IS official, moron. Ethics Commission lists Appointments of Treasurer and finance reports.
Wow. IQ points are fleeing the Republican Party as fast as good men and women can re-register as Democrats. Soon you won't have a braincell left to share amongst yourselves.
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Good lord, are Hodge and Owens the best we can do!?!
Isn't there some business friendly Republican out there who's not insane or a big baby who could run for Allen's seat instead of these retread legislators?
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House Dist 24 - Ronnie Metsker and Jim Slattery's son, Mike. A lot of resources being pumped here on the D side.
Senate Dist 10 - Mary Pilcher Cook and Sue Gamble fighting over the R nomination
House Dist 38 - Anthony Brown being challenged by a UMKC prof.
House Dist 18 - Cindy Neighbor being challenged by a Republican
With regard to the 8th, the woman's name is Judy Macy. She was in the House in the early nineties. No way she beats any Republican (unless it's Hodge)
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Kiegerl has also drawn a Dem opponent. Agree that Dems take Allen's seat if Hodge wins primary but he probably won't. Owens was on OP City Council for years and is well known in that area but Dems are already wrapping the coal vote around his neck and in that district that's a big deal.
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Wait, Scott Schwab is still around? I thought he was beaten 50% to 30% in the primary by Aner? I know we are trying to go green, but does recycling politicians really help
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when ben is the replacement.....Schwab looks great. As for Ainis....er...ahner..he don't even live her no more. So, if he can resurect...cudos. Better than hodge.
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Phill Kline doesn't live here either but it hasn't stopped him.
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Good one.
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Someone needs to run against Wysong. He is a complete liberal.
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Yes please. Any person/animal would be better than Wysong. Can my dog file?
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Kansas should stay as red as possible. I envy Kansas. I know God will take its people in its arms when the Rapture comes, while the rest of us will burn alive in a storm of fire.
I also know that Kansas - great agricultural place as it is, can resolve any issues with drought by organizing state-wide prayers, as was recently done in Georgia. We are not so lucky, I am afraid.
It is also great that Kansas has the courage to dismiss teachers that dare contradict the Bible, source of all truth. Not many states or countries dare to do this anymore (they used to but stopped centuries ago, I don't understand why). I honestly hope that in the future, Kansas will show the World the true path by flogging in public anyone who dares deny the fact that Adam lived happily in Paradise until Eva tempted him with an Oregon Apple (I bet you didn't know this one, the apple was a red delicious one grown in Oregon - that is what made it so tempting - but this is not in the Bible for some reason.)
Courage, Kansas, make sure McCain gets voted into office. You won't let a black guy tell us what to do, now will you! Definitely not one who went to Harvard and graduate first in the class, for God's sake! This would be adding insult to injury, now wouldn't it.
McCain, you see, if close enough to Bush to make us feel were are in familiar territory. While Bush was a C student at Yale, McCain ranked last at the Naval Academy, let's hope this is reassuring enough - but please make sure McCain is OK with all that is in the Bible! - you don't want any surprises later.
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